Browsing the internet this week I came across an organisation called Eurostat. Quite a fascinating website if you've never seen it before, because I hadn't.
Eurostat is the Statistical Office of the European Union and its task is to provide it with statistics at a European level.
You could spend an age going through the figures and tables they produce and you can imagine the huge army of statisticians that must be employed to pull it all together. You can see where some of our money goes now.
But here's one that caught my eye in one of their reports. They are figures for the projected %ages of people over 65 in various countries of the EU area as we progress through the 21st century. Not all these countries are full EU members and apologies it's quite a small image.
We've all heard about the demographic timebomb because we are living longer, and as a result of baby booms in the 1950s and 1960s. The statistical table brings it home. Look at the UK (near the bottom of the Table). 1970 - 12.9% were over 65. In 2014 there are say 17.5% over 65. Then roll forward to 2060 - the projection is 24.5%. Now 24.5% is a heck of a lot more elderly people, especially when we are dealing with a MUCH increased population projection anyway.
Official projections for the year 2060 suggest a UK population of 81 million. There would then be close on 20 million people over 65. There are about 11 million over 65s in the UK at present. Imagine just the NHS bill for dealing with that 9 million extra elderly people that will be about then, and you don't have to have a very high IQ to see that the present system would never cope with these figures. And imagine what it will be like stuck in the Checkout queue at Tesco!
It's not only going to be a problem for the UK but the whole of Europe. Lots of countries will be in a far worse state than the UK, having about a third of their populations over the age of 65. How on earth is this elderly population going to be supported in the manner it has been accustomed to? Can those younger people in work bear the taxation that will surely be necessary for the various European states to pay old age pensions, health care, social care etc for this burgeoning population?
Between just 2010 and 2050 in the EU, it would move from having almost four working-age people for every person aged 65 and over to two working-age people for every person aged 65 and over.
For too long we have known the above, and yet successive governments have kicked the ball into the long grass for someone else to play with it later. True, in the UK steps have recently been taken to try and address the problem. Pension age is being raised, workplace pension schemes are becoming mandatory and public sector pensions tightened up. But I wouldn't be surprised if by 2060 people won't be able to draw old age pension until well into their 70s.
Remember the film Logan's Run and "Carousel" at the age of 30? Let's hope no-one in charge in the EU remembers it, or I can see an army of 65 year olds following in the footsteps of Logan and doing a runner before the state decides that it's Carousel time for the pensioners!
In my opinion this demographic change will be one of the most serious social problems countries will have to face. A couple of generations ago things might have looked a bit better for the elderly. There was a more cohesive society, and in many areas there were still extended family units living close to one another, who could watch over and care for their own as age took its toll. People were more neighbourly in general and I honestly feel that across society there was more respect for old people. Now - lots of us do not even know who lives next door and if we did, we probably wouldn't like them!
In George Orwell's book 1984, O'Brien says to Winston Smith:
"If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face— forever."
That statement used to scare me and I used to picture it in my mind's eye. Now when I think of the future, I'm still scared, but all I can picture at the moment is this:
